Arneb wrote:Meanwhile in Brexistan, Dominic "The Cum" Cummings has been caught going on a 300 mi. car trip to visit his parents, of all people, while suffering from an active, symptomatic case of Covid-19. Lesser people have had to resign their posts for less, but he is such an irreplaceable expert at arseholery he will certainly keep his.
Мастер wrote:There have been 32,876 identified cases here, with 28 deaths.
The US is approaching 100,000 deaths, which if occurring at the same rate, would mean 117 million people were infected. More than one third of the country.
Possible reasons for this.
a) Lots of testing here, with lots of false positives.
b) Quality of healthcare is vastly lower in the US, resulting in a much higher (and we really do mean "much" higher) death rate there.
c) More than one third of the people in the US are infected, suggesting Llance's earlier speculation, somewhere in this or another thread, was correct - many undetected cases.
d) Something else?
Arneb wrote:Singapore with its drastic measures may have been successful in preventing the virus from eating into the older demographics.
Arneb wrote:So, while singapore's health system may be superior to the US's, it simply cannot be vastly superior in the particular case of Covid-19, because for the most severe cases, there is simply not too much you can do.
Arneb wrote:because of the tyranny of Bayes' theroem
Arneb wrote:even a highly sensitive and specific test can become useless if the prevalence of the condition that is being tested for is low enough. "Pre-test probability" is what must always be on our mind when we order tests.
Arneb wrote:Finally, I read the hypothesis that because Coronaviruses are more frequent in Eastern Asia, there may be a certain degree of immunity in people living there. The kind of immunit that doesn't prevent an infection but is enough to prevent a high percentage of severe courses.
Мастер wrote:Arneb wrote:even a highly sensitive and specific test can become useless if the prevalence of the condition that is being tested for is low enough. "Pre-test probability" is what must always be on our mind when we order tests.
If nobody has the disease, then all the positive results will be false positives
Heid the Ba wrote:We are managing to have plenty of new cases and an economy in tatters.
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