by Richard A » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:07 pm
A view from South Britain. First stage is the case before the Supreme Court - which according to reports is due to deliver its ruling in around 7 weeks' time. Depending on the outcome, we move to one of two scenarios.
Scenario 1: the UK Supreme Court rules in favour of the Scottish Government - and their track record in recent years has shown them quite capable of delivering rulings that the Westminster Government doesn't like. Then we move to indyref 2. The UK Government would have to recognise it - although they've shown themselves willing to disregard international law, to disregard a judgment of their own Supreme Court seems quite a call even for this bunch. Whoever replaces Liz Truss as Prime Minister, such a move would strip them of whatever residual authority they may have. Assume that the Yes vote then wins the referendum. The UK Government could try to claim that the referendum was non-binding, but given their insistence over the last 6 years that referendum results must be respected, negotiations on Scottish independence would pretty much have to follow. (If they didn't, then we switch to the latter stages of Scenario 2.)
Scenario 2: the Court rules against the Scottish Government (i.e. in favour of Westminster). The SNP then fights the next general election, whenever it takes place, on a platform of independence. (Nicola Sturgeon has already said that's her plan B.) Assume that the SNP win it - and the only thing that would seem to stand in their way would be unprecedented cooperation, at least in Scotland, between the pro-Union parties. (In that election, though, Alba would need to think very carefully what to do if it doesn't want to split the independence vote.) The SNP then claim a mandate for independence. Westminster will ignore it - whichever party wins in the rest of the UK. The scenario of Keir Starmer needing SNP support to form a government won't work because he'd lose those MPs on Scottish independence anyway. So what then?
Well, Scotland could take up arms as Ireland did. One tactic they could use would be for the uprising to stop at the English border - a great historical "what if?" is what if the Jacobites had not continued to march south? (OK, Charles Edward Stuart, like his father, saw himself as King of England as well as Scotland, so one can see why he didn't, but you get the point.) But even then, it would risk a long, bloody conflict, especially if we look at the example of the Irish War of Independence, which got prolonged because of ethnic/sectarian fighting. If the uprising involved the liberation movement turning on English settlers - and as it is, there were reports of violence during indyref 1 - a similar story could unfold. I don't think there's stomach in England for an armed conflict to keep Scotland in the UK - but that could change if the Sun, Mail, etc. put pictures of English "refugees" on the front page to whip up their base.
So, from my perspective, a better approach would be the Catalan one: just declare independence and get on with it. Only if Suella Braverman were PM would London's response be likely to be similar to Madrid's - and as this scenario follows the next election that's not likely. If anyone else were PM, there would be expressions of outrage, statements that the Government does not recognise Scottish independence, etc. - but that's it. As above, I don't think there's the stomach to repress Scottish independence by force, especially if the new government in Edinburgh made clear that English settlers who wanted it would have a place in the new Scotland. If there were any actual armed intervention, it would be comparable to the Slovenia's independence war rather than Croatia's, but I suspect it wouldn't even come to that. A few burdensome border checks to make the point - all traffic on the A74, A68 and A1 going through checkpoints with one officers searching every car with back-up looking on - but even that wouldn't last too long. A statement that Scotland couldn't use the English pound, to which, if it chose, Edinburgh could reply, "try stopping us". And then both sides getting used to the idea.
But that's just my view from the South. I don't live in Scotland - the perspective of those who do may well be different.