The next UK Prime Minister

[Richard A]

We haven't quite beaten Argentina's record of 4 Presidents in a month

On indyref2, if I have the story straight, the Irish got home rule, because one of their political parties was needed for the coalition? (Kind of like the way Theresa May needed the DUP.) Perhaps something similar will happen with Scotland some time.

That is precisely what the Tories have consistently been threatening - sorry, warning of, should there be a general election and Labour win it.

[tubeswell]

How real/surreal is this?

[Мастер]

How real/surreal is this?

Ab yes, Boris Johnson. I remember that fellow. He was PM, when? Last month?

[Lianachan]

On indyref2, if I have the story straight, the Irish got home rule, because one of their political parties was needed for the coalition? (Kind of like the way Theresa May needed the DUP.) Perhaps something similar will happen with Scotland some time.

Gordon Brown's promise of, essentially, home rule was the lie that ultimately won the independence referendum for Projet Fear. Scottish people won't fall for it again. Home rule is useless anyway, only full independence is any real use - and Ireland had to fight for that, remember!

[Richard A]

Yes, his time as PM is portrayed in the TV series, This England, available on Sky. I haven't got all the way through it yet, but the portrayal of a) the looming figure of Dominic Cummings and b) the growing covid pandemic in the first months of 2020 is all too vivid.

[Lianachan]

On indyref2, if I have the story straight, the Irish got home rule, because one of their political parties was needed for the coalition? (Kind of like the way Theresa May needed the DUP.) Perhaps something similar will happen with Scotland some time.

Gordon Brown's promise of, essentially, home rule was the lie that ultimately won the independence referendum for Projet Fear. Scottish people won't fall for it again. Home rule is useless anyway, only full independence is any real use - and Ireland had to fight for that, remember!

Oh, and the UK gov don't have anything to worry about. SNP policy still seems to be "give us what we're asking for or we'll bloody come back and ask you again" despite all their recent posturing.

[Мастер]

Gordon Brown's promise of, essentially, home rule was the lie that ultimately won the independence referendum for Projet Fear. Scottish people won't fall for it again. Home rule is useless anyway, only full independence is any real use - and Ireland had to fight for that, remember!

OK, I had to do a little research on this one, because I found it really confusing at first.

But what I have found is, two days before the referendum, Gordon Brown (no longer the PM, but perhaps still influential) got the leaders of the three main political parties (other than the SNP) to agree to further devolution of powers to the Scottish parliament. Presumably, the idea was to try to capture some of the "yes" vote by persuading them they could have more autonomy within the UK, and this may have been successful.

Apparently an act was passed in 2016 which did give Scotland some additional powers, but it is not clear to me how the powers delivered in 2016 measured up against the powers promised in 2014 - was the promise largely delivered, or did the 2016 act come up well short of what was promised?

The use of the word "lie" in the quotation at the beginning of this post suggests to me that what was delivered in 2016 was somewhat short of what was promised in 2014 - was it?

[Мастер]

Oh, and the UK gov don't have anything to worry about. SNP policy still seems to be "give us what we're asking for or we'll bloody come back and ask you again" despite all their recent posturing.

What ought they to do? (What can they do?)

[Richard A]

A view from South Britain. First stage is the case before the Supreme Court - which according to reports is due to deliver its ruling in around 7 weeks' time. Depending on the outcome, we move to one of two scenarios.

Scenario 1: the UK Supreme Court rules in favour of the Scottish Government - and their track record in recent years has shown them quite capable of delivering rulings that the Westminster Government doesn't like. Then we move to indyref 2. The UK Government would have to recognise it - although they've shown themselves willing to disregard international law, to disregard a judgment of their own Supreme Court seems quite a call even for this bunch. Whoever replaces Liz Truss as Prime Minister, such a move would strip them of whatever residual authority they may have. Assume that the Yes vote then wins the referendum. The UK Government could try to claim that the referendum was non-binding, but given their insistence over the last 6 years that referendum results must be respected, negotiations on Scottish independence would pretty much have to follow. (If they didn't, then we switch to the latter stages of Scenario 2.)

Scenario 2: the Court rules against the Scottish Government (i.e. in favour of Westminster). The SNP then fights the next general election, whenever it takes place, on a platform of independence. (Nicola Sturgeon has already said that's her plan B.) Assume that the SNP win it - and the only thing that would seem to stand in their way would be unprecedented cooperation, at least in Scotland, between the pro-Union parties. (In that election, though, Alba would need to think very carefully what to do if it doesn't want to split the independence vote.) The SNP then claim a mandate for independence. Westminster will ignore it - whichever party wins in the rest of the UK. The scenario of Keir Starmer needing SNP support to form a government won't work because he'd lose those MPs on Scottish independence anyway. So what then?

Well, Scotland could take up arms as Ireland did. One tactic they could use would be for the uprising to stop at the English border - a great historical "what if?" is what if the Jacobites had not continued to march south? (OK, Charles Edward Stuart, like his father, saw himself as King of England as well as Scotland, so one can see why he didn't, but you get the point.) But even then, it would risk a long, bloody conflict, especially if we look at the example of the Irish War of Independence, which got prolonged because of ethnic/sectarian fighting. If the uprising involved the liberation movement turning on English settlers - and as it is, there were reports of violence during indyref 1 - a similar story could unfold. I don't think there's stomach in England for an armed conflict to keep Scotland in the UK - but that could change if the Sun, Mail, etc. put pictures of English "refugees" on the front page to whip up their base.

So, from my perspective, a better approach would be the Catalan one: just declare independence and get on with it. Only if Suella Braverman were PM would London's response be likely to be similar to Madrid's - and as this scenario follows the next election that's not likely. If anyone else were PM, there would be expressions of outrage, statements that the Government does not recognise Scottish independence, etc. - but that's it. As above, I don't think there's the stomach to repress Scottish independence by force, especially if the new government in Edinburgh made clear that English settlers who wanted it would have a place in the new Scotland. If there were any actual armed intervention, it would be comparable to the Slovenia's independence war rather than Croatia's, but I suspect it wouldn't even come to that. A few burdensome border checks to make the point - all traffic on the A74, A68 and A1 going through checkpoints with one officers searching every car with back-up looking on - but even that wouldn't last too long. A statement that Scotland couldn't use the English pound, to which, if it chose, Edinburgh could reply, "try stopping us". And then both sides getting used to the idea.

But that's just my view from the South. I don't live in Scotland - the perspective of those who do may well be different.

[Richard A]

Meanwhile, back to the topic of the thread, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out. Speculation continues that Boris (yes, him), Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman may run, but none of them have so far put their hat in the ring. Anyone who wants to has until 2pm on Monday to muster 100 MPs to vote for them - which by definition means a maximum of 3 candidates. Then the top 2 go through to 3 days of hustings and then the final vote of the membership's announced on Friday.

[Мастер]

Meanwhile, back to the topic of the thread, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out. Speculation continues that Boris (yes, him), Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman may run, but none of them have so far put their hat in the ring. Anyone who wants to has until 2pm on Monday to muster 100 MPs to vote for them - which by definition means a maximum of 3 candidates. Then the top 2 go through to 3 days of hustings and then the final vote of the membership's announced on Friday.

I don’t think I can run.

But if I can put up with 44 days of bullshit and then draw the pension - well, let me think about it.

I’m also wondering, if Volodya Putin comes to a bad end, will his Black Sea place become available at a good price?

[Мастер]

So I guess if Boris Johnson comes back, they can make a television serial about him called "Johnson - the Wilderness Weeks".

[Arneb]

You must have fallen deeply if you dare hope that Bojo the Clown, of all people, will bring stability to your party.

[Heid the Ba]

So I guess if Boris Johnson comes back, they can make a television serial about him called "Johnson - the Wilderness Weeks".

Ha!

[Richard A]

I see that in my first post on this thread, I commented that none of the candidates to succeed Boris would be likely to be any better than him, but asked if any of them could be any worse. Well, we got an answer to that one!

But Arneb should be careful about his use of "you" - although I do recognise that it reflects the general view of the Brits en masse from those outside the UK. It is not my party - and various commentators have made the point that our political system means that the next Prime Minister, like their predecessor, will be elected by a small minority of the population (as one put it, you could fit all of them into Wembley Stadium). But then, this is something that Boris's supporters point to: they love to repeat that he was elected by the British people and so has a mandate (unlike any of the other candidates). That along with getting Brexit done - and seeing Brexit as a positive thing is an article of faith if you're a Tory MP - and the success of the vaccine rollout, which, true, he did achieve, even if he screwed up the earlier part of the response to the pandemic.

Can he unite the party? Very likely not - and it's hard, in particular, to see how he can work with those who forced him out. Who would be his Chancellor (Finance Minister) would be a good question: the current one, Jeremy Hunt, has not a shred of finance experience.

But anyway, so far, the only candidate with the necessary 100 supporters actually declared is Rishi Sunak. Of the rumoured others, only 2 seem to have emerged: Boris (who hasn't actually said if he's running - seems to be hedging his bets until the last moment) and Penny Mordaunt. As for her, BBC political pundit Laura Kuensberg put it nicely: not being loathed by anyone doesn't necessarily mean you're popular.

[Richard A]

Oh and amusing comment just now from former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith: "(the Conservative Party) need to decide if we're going to decide to make a go of these last 2 years". An acknowledgment that they won't be in power after that?

[Richard A]

BoJo has just announced that he's not going to go for it. So unless Penny Mordaunt can pull a pretty spectacular rabbit out of the hat, it looks like Sunak. Good news for stability at least.

[Мастер]

So I guess this other person has 30 minutes to get more votes, or it's Sunak?

[Мастер]

So I guess this other person has 30 minutes to get more votes, or it's Sunak?

And it is Sunak.

[Lianachan]

Going to be great having this unelected billionaire making decisions that are going to most severely impact poor people. That's going to go down really well with the electorate.

ETA - except the racist gammons, obviously, who will find another reason to be angry with him being PM.

[Richard A]

If the racist gammons help the Conservative Party to continue to tear itself apart, I can live with that! Just as I don’t lose sleep over those of them who have already walked out, declaring that they’ll never vote Conservative again. If that splits the right-wing vote in their constituencies, allowing someone else to come up through the middle, cool!

[tubeswell]

So how long will Sunak last dya reckon?

[Мастер]

So how long will Sunak last dya reckon?

The benchmark to beat is 49 days.

[Heid the Ba]

Sinai will be fine, the MOs want him in preference to anyone else.

[Мастер]

Sinai

Autocorrupt?