Game changer in Northern Ireland?

[Richard A]

In the mainland UK, the focus has been on the Tories getting trounced, whether Boris can survive as PM and what Labour's only modest improvement mean - and re. the latter, whether the Lib Dems would consider a coalition with Labour if there are similar results in the next general election.

But the real drama is in Northern Ireland. For those outside the UK, the reason the election results there have only been confirmed now is that, as in Scotland, vote counters are allowed to get a decent night's sleep rather than having to count through the night. But now the results are in and what was previously suspected is now confirmed: Sinn Fein is the biggest political party in the Northern Ireland Assembly. I should probably have posted this in "On This Day In History" - on 8 May, 2022, 101 years after its creation, Northern Ireland ceased once and for all to have a "Protestant Parliament for a Protestant people". (Although the bicommunal Assembly created under the Good Friday Agreement was much less so than its pre-1972 predecessor, the Democratic Unionists routinely got the majority of its members and hence got to nominate the First Minister.) Now, what began as the political wing of the IRA - and let's be clear, that meant of the Provisional IRA during the Troubles - is now the largest party in Northern Ireland's legislature.

So what happens noy? Well, although Sinn Fein want, ultimately, a referendum on joining the Republic, their immediate priority is that they support the Northern Ireland Protocol to the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement. They supported Remain while the DUP supported Leave. So do the Alliance Party, which has emerged, insofar as I can tell, as NI's equivalent of the Lib Dems. The DUP has said it will not take part in government unless the Protocol goes - and as they're still the 2nd biggest party, they're in a position to do that. But if, on the one hand, they insist on the "We're not playing" line (a bit like Ian Paisley's "Ulster Says No!"), while Sinn Fein and the Alliance between them have a majority and are willing to make the Assembly work, we could be in new territory. Especially as a weakened DUP is in even less of a position to lean on the British Government - Boris, or whoever replaces him, will have greater priorities than keeping happy a bunch who have just lost in their own territory. The prospect of Northern Ireland's position as a sort of Canary Islands being strengthened is an interesting one.