Мудак

[Мастер]

So this one argues that questions of when Putin turned evil are misguided, since he was always evil.

https://worldcrunch.com/focus/is-putin-evil

One of the photos has a protester with a placard. Under the photo is the caption,

Protesters came to denounce the war in Ukraine in Berlin in early March 2022, with this placard reading, "Stop Putin — Stop the War."

What the placard actually says is "Tribunal".

[Мастер]

It is worth mentioning that Evgenyi Prigoshin used exactly the epithet in our thread title to describe tje 'happy grandpa' behind the Kremlin walls.

I guess that makes our title even more appropriate.

It's not clear how accurate some of the news coming out of Russia is right now, but the videos of military vehicles driving in front of the defence ministry in Moscow seem to be genuine.

And, a senior Russian general has publicly called on Prigozhin to stand down.

So something is going on.

Perhaps under other circumstance, this spark that could have burnt the whole place down. But there doesn't seem to be enough dry fuel lying around. Premature.

[Мастер]

So it is not quite thirty years since tanks were shooting their guns in the streets of Moscow.

Will it happen again?

[Мастер]

And the web site of the Russian Ministry of Defence is denying me access. In two languages.

Can anyone else hit it?

https://eng.mil.ru/

[Richard A]

So it is not quite thirty years since tanks were shooting their guns in the streets of Moscow.

Was that in response to the Chechens seizing the theatre?

I also remember tanks in the streets of Moscow in 1991 - and Boris Yeltsin famously standing on one to give a speech, triggering the end of the Soviet Union. But I'm not sure they actually opened fire that time.

Мастер, you know the land of your birth better than most of us. What's your prediction of how this will pan out - for both Russia and Ukraine?

[Мастер]

Was that in response to the Chechens seizing the theatre?

I refer to October 1993, when Boris Yeltsin had the parliament building attacked with tanks.

It's not the parliament building any more, I think it is part of the Moscow city administration now. In any event, in some of the videos of the military vehicles rolling past the ministry of defence today, this building is visible in the background. It's across the Moscow river from the Radisson Hotel, which is where one picks up one of the more popular river cruise boats these days.

Мастер, you know the land of your birth better than most of us.

That is an accident of history, due largely to two fellows with moustaches. I am not ethnically Russian, I am not a citizen (at least according to my interpretation of the law, but I dare not show my face there these days, in case the government has a different interpretation - I'm still under sixty), I have no memories of the place until decades later when visiting. If my first language wasn't English (growing up in an English-speaking country), it was German (but quickly forgotten, and relearned only decades later), not Russian. My Russian language still sucks.

So I don't know that I really know the country better than anyone else.

What's your prediction of how this will pan out - for both Russia and Ukraine?

But since you asked - I think they are going to need dental records to identify Prigozhin's body.

He has provided the spark - but I think there is not enough dry fuel lying around for the spark to lead to a large conflagration.

But, even if that is the case, this has got to be good news for Ukraine - just when the news was, the counter-offensive was performing below expectations, the most effective Russian fighting force in Ukraine turns on the government, seizes Rostov-on-Don, and another city on the road to Moscow, and the government takes the whole thing seriously enough to deploy troops in Red Square and on Arbat Square (where the Ministry of Defence is), and to put a senior general on the television asking Prigozhin to stop what he is doing. The government seems to be taking this whole thing pretty damn seriously.

So if Prigozhin is blown apart by a weapon with enough force to sink a battleship, what happens? His forces are brought under the control of the formal Russian military, who will probably make a lot of screw ups and generally not be as effective as Prigozhin was (and hard to believe as it may be, the Russian military may even be more humane than Prigozhin was). So at a minimum, reduced fighting effectiveness of the most effective fighting force Russia has.

And possibly even more damaging - Prigozhin, a Russian who has absolutely no pro-western sympathies, has gone public with the same narrative that nearly everyone in the west has been saying since this whole thing began - there was no reason for this war, Ukraine was no threat to Russia, etc. As the Vulcans say, only Nixon could go to China.

I'll bet Putin's really glad he started this war now.

And, for what it's worth, governments around the world are probably having a rethink on whether using mercenary groups to fight their wars is really a good idea.

[Arneb]

And the web site of the Russian Ministry of Defence is denying me access. In two languages.

Can anyone else hit it?

https://eng.mil.ru/

They are letting me in. Among news of an incessant stream of military successes against the Kiev regime, they also write this:

24.06.2023 (02:15)
The Deputy Commander of the Joint Group of Forces General of the Army Sergei Surovikin to the leadership, commanders and fighters of the Wagner PMC

‘I have just come from the frontline, where our troops, our commanders, our soldiers, our fighters, volunteers are carrying out the task, fighting the enemy to the death, with the superior forces of the enemy, suffering losses, but standing on their positions.
I appeal to the leadership, to the commanders and fighters of the Wagner PMC. Together with you we have passed a difficult, hard way, we have fought together, taken the risks, suffered losses, we have won together. We are the same blood, we are warriors.
I call you to stop. The enemy is only waiting for our domestic political situation to deteriorate. We must not play into the hands of the enemy at this difficult time for the country.
Before it is too late, we must do something - we must obey the will and order of the President of the Russian Federation, who was elected by the people, we must stop the columns, return them to their permanent bases and areas of concentration, and solve all the problems only peacefully, under the leadership of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation’.

[Мастер]

I'm still blocked.

[Мастер]

And, I didn't see Putin's speech. But, at the other end of the spectrum of possible outcomes, Putin apparently referred to what is going on as reminiscent of the 1917 revolution (I assume he means the second 1917 revolution, or both of them together).

Perhaps he remembers what happened to Tsar Nicolas.

[Lance]

And the web site of the Russian Ministry of Defence is denying me access. In two languages.

Can anyone else hit it?

https://eng.mil.ru/

Blocked for me too.

[Arneb]

Still open. Perhaps they still consider Germany their freind, which would make me very uncomfortable.

F.A.Z. has it that Putin has left Moscow for the Summer Palace.

[Мастер]

So it looks like Prigozhin will be falling out a window in Belarus.

[Мастер]

I've seen someone point out that it can't be good for Putin's image that he had to ask for help from Tajikistan.

However, I've been unable to find any evidence that this actually happened.

[Мастер]

Well, it doesn't look like Prigozhin will be blown to bits, at least not yet.

There's a presidential election in less than nine months - when will he announce?

[Arneb]

I guess not running is the price for not being blown to bits.

[Мастер]

I'm not sure when the next election in Belarus is.

[Richard A]

Still open. Perhaps they still consider Germany their friend, which would make me very uncomfortable.

Well, I was able to get in just now, so it's not just Germany. Latest post relates to how wonderfully the special military operation is going, written in typical florid style ("our competent, selfless troops"). The one before that talks about how effective the Shmel hand-held flamethrower is in the hands of the Ivanovo Airborne Brigade - and then there's the speech telling Wagner to lay down their arms. All this from yesterday - although it's now past noon in Moscow, there are no posts from today.

[Richard A]

Ooh, but further down the page there are also sections on the "peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh" and the "mission in Syria". So neither of those have gone away, you know.

[Мастер]

Ooh, but further down the page there are also sections on the "peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh" and the "mission in Syria". So neither of those have gone away, you know.

Well, they might have gone away, if this Prigozhin mutiny had done a little better. But . . .

Are there a lot of tall buildings in Belarus?

[Мастер]

And among the likely consequences, I saw someone's internet comment, that Putin will probably leave a one-star review for Prigozhin's restaurant.

Someone else's response to that was, there was too much polonium in the chicken.

[Arneb]

All excellent points.

Happy Grandpa will have towo choices. Either have a Litwinineko/Berezhovsky/Nemzow/Politkovskaya/Magnitzky etc. done on Prigozhin or have everyone know what keeps him from toppling are supergiants like Lukashenko and Rahmon. Man would I have loved to see Prigozhin's and Kadyrov's bands tough it out for domination of Rostov-upon-Don.

[Мастер]

Man would I have loved to see Prigozhin's and Kadyrov's bands tough it out for domination of Rostov-upon-Don.

Rostov-on-Don might have ended up looking like Bakhmut!

[Мастер]

I think there must be something going on that’s not visible to us. This whole thing is just too weird.

[Мастер]

And from Putin's speech, we learn (if we didn't know already) the victory that the Russian military had won win the First World War was stolen in 1917, due to domestic intrigue and revolution and the like.

It's good to know that if not for a stab-in-the-back in each country, both Germany and Russia could have won the war!

[Heid the Ba]

I wonder if this wasn't just a way to get out for Prigozhin to get out from under the shitstorm in Ukraine.