Illuminati-R-Us

What Heid always says: Fuck them, fuck them with a big fucky thing. I'll be curious to hear if someone leaned on Heid at this wine party, and if he used the surfeit of empty wine bottles to make good on his mantra?

Q: How much space will Brexit free up in the EU?
A: 1 GB.

Answering Llance’s question from the now locked thread, about whether Brexit can be undone.

The EU makes its own rules, so sure, it can be undone. But without a rules change, the UK would have to apply like everyone else. My guess is, the UK generated sufficient ill will in this process that the EU isn’t going to make it easy.

That special deal, with no Euro, budget rebates, etc. - I think that’s gone for good.

Now if Scotland were to withdraw from the UK and apply, I think they’re going to get a much warmer reception than they would have if the first referendum had succeeded. And I believe that it has already been discussed and agreed to with the EU that should Northern Ireland join Ireland, it would be part of the EU from day one, by the East German precedent.

So Scotland and Northern Ireland have alternate pathways in, England and Wales are at the back of the queue if they want back in.

My evening was as suave and sophisticated as you would expect, no arguments, no shouting. I did sit up a bit late drinking more wine but no ill effects. I’ve just watched the sun rise over the North Sea and life goes on.

Scotland getting back in depends a bit on how far we diverge from EU standards in the interim, whether the Tories insist on straight bananas and sausages without meat in them like in the old days,

Heid the Ba wrote:Scotland getting back in depends a bit on how far we diverge from EU standards in the interim, whether the Tories insist on straight bananas and sausages without meat in them like in the old days,

This is one of the main reasons why we need our independence ASAFP.

Heid the Ba wrote:sausages without meat in them like in the old days,

For real? I heard about the banana curvature controversy, but not the meatless sausage one.

The closest I ever heard of was the Euro-sausage scandal that took Jim Hacker to #10 in Yes, Minister.

About twenty years ago there was something about whether British bangers had enough meat in them to qualify as sausages with the usual suspects wanting to keep British sausages full of floor sweepings and random objects rather than actual meat.

As a good counterpoint to the vulgarity of the toffs, the self-indulgence from the left, the voice growing silent: John LeCarre accepts the Olof Palme prize with a speech. It's a good read.

So what happens if Boris Johnson does not recover?

Given the solid majority the conservatives have, I take it they will just have the party sort out who the next PM is, no general election - correct?

If so, who is it?

Yes, there is currently no deputy so it would be an election by the party faithful and MPs. Javid or Raab probably. Patel is an idiot and Sunak is a bit wet round the ears. Co-incidentally all are the children of immigrants.

A lot will depend on what's happened to Dominic Cummings. He was reported to have tested positive for coronavirus around the same time BoJo and Hancock did, but I haven't heard much since. If he's still a force to be reckoned with, Javid has little chance - to resign rather than sack the staff Cummings didn't like was straight disrespectful. (On the other hand, if Javid does become PM, Cummings really is screwed.) So Raab will definitely be a contender, but so will Gove. Lord preserve us from an Andrea Leadsom comeback - that thought is too horrible to contemplate!

But there's a separate issue - the first part of this thread's title. Coronavirus has put absolutely all other business on the backburner, where it will stay for some months to come yet. On both sides of the Channel. So realistically, there won't be any serious discussions about the future EU-UK deal until at least midsummer, more likely September. Which doesn't give a lot of time before New Year's Eve. So, assuming a sufficient number of us are still alive come the autumn (which currently seems more likely than not), a no deal exit or an extension to trade talks? Depends, I suspect, on how the discussions among the Member States go. If I were a representative of the Spanish or Italian government, I would want to be flexible because my country's economy had just taken a thorough kicking and carrying on selling the Brits wine, beer (yes, we import a lot of Estrella Damm and Peroni) and fruit would help restart it, as would a return of British hordes to Lanzarote, Ibiza, Florence and Rome. Central Europe, hard to say - we used to import a lot of Polish goods but that was principally for the Polish community that increasingly we don't have any more. On the other hand, we'd already worked out that we need Central European farmworkers, so maybe some of them will want to come back. I guess we'll see.

I would argue that the disrespectful part was Cummings insisting Javid sack his advisers, but either way there is bad blood there.

I would agree, Heid the Ba. I was mocking Cummings's priorities/attitudies. By the way, on that, did you see the BBC2 documentary on him: "Taking Control: The Dominic Cummings Story"? It made very clear that he doesn't stand for dissent.

I saw enough of it, he is a very odd man who is convinced he has he answer to every question.

Meanwhile, it took an emotional appeal from football celebs to stop the abolition of free school meals for poor children, and the military plane usually used for transporting the PM when other duties allow it has a splashy new Union Jack paint job to the tune of a million quid or two.

There is a government that has its priorities straight!

I know - the sane among us watch in despair. And a little noticed development - Nigel Farage recently stepped down as a radio talk show host on LBC. Possibly he was pushed, but I wouldn't bet on it. Makes me wonder what the sod is up to. He's no longer got his nice salary from the Parliament he loved to hate, he's going to want a replacement income. And BoJo owes him the large majority he won in December - yes, Labour were a mess, but the Brexit Party could easily have split the vote in some of those Northern constituencies and both Farage and BoJo know it. Actually, more than Farage, BoJo owes Trump - the Donald gave an interview on Farage's talk show and told him he and BoJo needed to stop squabbling and pull together to get Brexit done. And Nigel duly obliged. That could be an interesting soap to watch.y

But meanwhile, as more and more of Europe opens up, it seems that some of my predictions re. attitudes to Brits are proving right - i.e. that different Member States with different priorities would take different views. First Portugal and then Spain discuss an air bridge with the UK - basically, to allow Brits to go to the beach without being quarantined. Then Boris finally, finally decides that quarantining people who enter the country - including returning Brits - might be a good idea after all and Macron gets miffed that the French aren't exempted. I actually think quarantining people arriving from the world's 3rd largest hotspot is a good idea, but come on, please, to protect your own population, not because of political pique! Belgium's more relaxed, so I may get my trip to Brussels after all but will have to burn more carbon to do it. Poland's still saying nie, but looks like Germany is now letting us back in, so Arneb, I may make it in November after all. We'll see.

Interesting that no one has commented here on the British Government saying, "Yeah, we're going to break international law. And?" Maybe those outside the UK have become so exasperated with the approach to Europe by BoJo and His Band of Clowns that nothing surprises them any more - although I noticed that the European Commission and the Irish Government have had something to say about it. And inside, the railing has been among ourselves. But even by the standards of BoJo, it beggars belief. It only confirms the belief that Dominic Cummings (he of the "Northern Ireland can fall into the fucking sea as far as I'm concerned") is running the government.

The one part of their approach- the only one - that makes any sense relates to checks on goods going in the NI-GB direction. We have obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement to carry out checks on goods going the other way, i.e. from England or Scotland into Northern Ireland, because of NI's effective position under the Protocol as a transition zone between GB and the EU. (Not quite how it puts it, but that's pretty much how checks on the Border itself are to be avoided.) That's the deal - NI is not to be treated as a back door into the EU. But if a British Government chose not to impose any checks at Stranraer or Liverpool - in effect, to leave its own door unlocked - that's surely up to it. A thought, though - Priti Patel might urge BoJo to change his mind on that if a large number of migrants show up in Ireland!

Well, we've somewhat grown used to the American and British heads of government acting like the badly educated brats they are. The "fuck you, we're the Empire" attitude that's behind the latest rablle isn't that new, although I'll give you that: Yes the scale is unprecedent. You cannot sign contracts with the UK anymore because BoJo will say, oh sorry, that's not what I meant whenever he feels like it. Bad tidings.

Meanwhile, dust from the Californian wildfires has been measured above Leipzig. Fuck those bloody antifa guys who can't keep their Zippos in their pants.

It’s not all bad, though. Polls are consistently showing support for Scottish independence ranging from 53% - 60%.

And the irony is that, unlike last time, a lot in England are supportive. Last time, the English views were either "No way, you can't break up the UK!" or "It's up to them - not really bothered." Now there are an increasing number (like me) who actively wish Scotland well in its endeavour to free itself from this madness. The problem is that BoJo is insisting on rolling out the "you agreed the vote would be for a lifetime" line - come on, Cummings, get off your arse and write some new scripts; this isn't what we meant when we said we need to recycle more. And he needs to formally approve an independence referendum.

But for us, all we can really say is, we're screwed and we know we are. I'm appalled, though, to hear that dust from the US Pacific wildfires has reached Leipzig. Still, maybe if the wind managed to blow it another 1,000 km, it might get the attention of someone Trump does listen to.

"Support for Brexit collapsing"

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit- ... 3Q2dZ3Zc4s

Something about horses and barn doors comes to mind . . .

Richard A wrote: And he needs to formally approve an independence referendum.

Common misconception, that.

Lianachan wrote:

Richard A wrote: And he needs to formally approve an independence referendum.

Common misconception, that.

I don't understand the system that well, so this is my speculation.

But, I would think Scotland could have a referendum about anything it likes anytime it feels like it.

The difference is, the government in Westminster stated publicly the last time that it would support the outcome of an independence referendum, but it hasn't done so this time.

Is that accurate?

No, it’s not exactly that. I’ll come back to this and explain when I’m not just passing through.

Apparently, Dominic Cummings is planning to leave No. 10 as a policy advisor.

Not all is bad in this world.