Brexit Delay

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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:28 pm

Heid the Ba wrote:French minister for EU affairs (Nathalie Loiseau) has called her cat Brexit: she has solid reasons.
"He wakes me up every morning miaowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays in the middle, undecided, and then gives me evil looks when I put him out."

I saw that in those social medias they have now, good stuff.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:31 am

Mutti is before the Bundestag saying an extension will be granted if IM Mai's deal is passed beforehand, period.

I get the impression that the widespread refusal of the deal (even though different people have different reason to refuse it) rests on a two misunderstandings: One, that IM Mai was somehow an incompetent and chaotic negotiator who could have secured something way better had she been a better negotiator, and, Two, that the EU could be made to give the UK everything and anything it wanted if only it had the prospect of longer/closer/whatever membership of the UK dangling before its face. Both these assumptions are wrong.

Nobody, not Tony Blair, not Kenneth Clarke not Gordon Brown,not Mrs. Handbag-Slammer, you name them, could have got anything better if the boundary conditions were complete control of immigration (that's immigration from the EU), not being bound by the rules of the Common Market and not being bound by the rulings of the European Court of Justice. And if no-one's willing to sacrifice the peace on the island of Ireland, then backstop is what you will get.

And, OK, if the English and Welsh are stupid enough to decide to leave, then yes, we are sad, but it's not what we want to have on our agenda every day for the next couple of years. We did that with Greece, but that was in order to preserve something, thank you very much.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby tubeswell » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:53 am

So is it delayed again? Or...?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:35 am

It might well not be. As things stand now, if the House of Commons does not accept the deal, the train goes over the cliff a week from tomorrow.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:11 pm

These numbers just in: A German economy think-tank (one that is ideologically corportae-leaning) has just put a price tag on Brexit.

No deal would cost the UK 87 billion € in lost revenue, higher tariffs, higher prices, etc. per year, and the EU-27 22 billion. 10 of those would be on Germany - € 115 per head and year in lost buying power, while the average UK citizen would löse almost € 900 per year (of course, the use the pund, so it would be much less bad). The numbers are approximately halved by the proposed deal.

You move, Boris Fannyba... OK, I'll shut up.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:42 pm

I M Mai has tried to back parliament into a corner to get her deal passed by claiming it is a binary situation. She is wilfully ignoring the possibility of withdrawing the Article 50 notice. I suspect that the Civil Service is making it very clear to her that we are nowhere close to ready for any kind of Brexit. To get the deal through Mai will have to get Bercow to back down and then assemble enough votes to get the deal passed. I think it is more likely that a different motion to withdraw Article 50 will be proposed but I have no idea if it would pass.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:15 pm

Re. "wilfully ignoring" - Did she not say a few days ago that she, "as Prime Minister" would "never" revoke art. 50? One can interpret that as, "if the House puts up a majority to replace me and THEN instructs a successor to revoke art. 50, be my guest". I know, fat chance.

You won't suspect me of undue sympathy with IM Mai, but in all fairness to her, she did tell Parliament that the decisions now were between
no deal and out in in a week,
her deal with short extension,
long extension+EU elections+ reset/rethink, and
no Brexit,

where the last option would not be available to a PM May because she is adamant she will either deliver Brexit or be no-confidenced out of her job. I think she isn't wilfully ignoring the possibility, she is frank about the fact that she will do everything to prevent it - preparations be damned.

So no. 3 is ruled by the EU and no 4 is ruled out as long as she occupies No. 10. Thus, binary decision. Sooo, Mr. Speaker? Still bent on no deal in a week, instead of being generous with an age-old rule?
If I didn't dislike her so much, I'd call her maneuvering in order to get what she wants shrewd. Viewd from this side of the Channel, Bercow's move, otoh, comes across as a rather crude attempt to back her into a no deal/no Brexit corner. And he may not like the anwer he gets.

Also purely from this side of the Channel, enthusiasm for an art. 50 revocation is very, very limitied. One reason is it may be purely procedural. May steps down, some soft Brexiteer is the next PM, he is conciliatory with Labour so the hard Brexiteers in his party wake up from their wet dreams of Imperial power, they hammer out a common position, and BANG, next art. 50 letter landing on the Council's desk, while Tory EMPs and Comission appointees try to pour concrete into each, any, and every real EU reform. The other reason is, have we endured this shit for three years just so Boris Fannybaws Johnson and Jacob Reek-Fuck can go on and on and on how everything bad in the world comes out Brussel's ass and how everything in the UK would better outside the Union while their constitutencies receive fat Cohesion Fund subsidies and they call Uncle Zbiginiew for their next plumbing job, cheap? Please, we've about had it.

ETA: Short bit on the view from the continent by Der Spiegel (in English).
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:13 pm

John Oliver's take on it...
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:21 am

So, 22 May if the deal goes through.
April 12 if it doesn't - which seems smart. It' s short enough to not look like an extension for extension's sake, and it's the last date on which a European election could be called in the UK, IF the ominous options 3 or 4 came to pass.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:18 am

Brexit gone into extra time, with a good chance of it going to penalties. I'm not sure what use giving her another 100 yards of road to kick the can along will be, really.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:59 am

I think that's precisely the question that kept the heads in the Council spinning for 90 min. The simple answer would be, we have to protect ourselves (lawsuits against the legitimacy of the next European Parliament would be That Which Shall Not Be Named), while at the same time removing ourselves from the blame game (here we were, working hard on the Ultimate Super Successful Brexit, and they coldly shut the door on us. Stop the rot from Brussels!), which sure to begin once the train is off the cliff.

The pervasive thinking was, even if it's not IM Mai's fault (although it might well be), it sure is her problem.So let's keep out while avoiding to give her nothing at all.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Richard A » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:02 am

May should indeed get on a plane to Brussels and unilaterally revoke Article 50. Actually, it is the one thing that she could do that would earn her respect, at least from some (right now, she doesn't have any from anyone). But she won't. Partly because she doesn't have the bottle. But also because Arneb is right - in her heart she is still IM (which I presume stands for Innenminister) Mai. And revoking Article 50 would mean that free movement stays. For her, that's what this has always been about.

Not that Corbyn has been a lot better. An Austrian colleague is convinced that he is and has always been a Leaver at heart. It's certainly true that he doesn't like the way migrant labour from Central & Eastern Europe is used to keep wages down, but he and McDonnell had come up with ideas to deal with that (raising the minimum wage and real penalties for those who don't pay it). But the fact that he wants a customs union with the EU (for the whole of the UK) and something "close to" the single market means that he'd agree to pay the price of free movement of people that goes with that. The real problem with him is that he thinks he can use May's floundering incompetence over Brexit to force a general election rather than pushing for a 2nd referendum. And so he'll let May drive us closer and closer to the edge of the cliff in the hope of being able to seize the wheel, not realising that by the time he does shove May from the car, it'll be too late.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:40 pm

I agree with almost all of this, except IM means Inoffizieller Mitarbeiter - the old Stasi abbreviation for the net of undercover agents they employed. I've been calling her that since you told me how as Minister of the Interior, she tried to establish a denunciation system at Universities to get hold of "Radicals". Hence also the German spelling "Mai". :D

I've been considering Corbyn to be a Leaver all the time, to be honest. He always gave the impression to me that to him, the EU is purely a capitalist endeavour that should have no support from a true Socialist.

I'd like to ask my frineds on this board a question - As I said, enthusiasm for Bremain/Breturn ideas on the continent is limited: a) they can always throw Art. 50 back at us b) they can prevent closer integration while they're in. c) we're fed up with being the butt of everything and anything that any Little Englander doesn't like d) stop the histrionics already and let us get back to our business (Looming debt crisis, the Mediterranean grave, Turkey, enemies of the EU gouverning in Moscow, Washington, London and even capitals within the EU, etc.).

Also, looking from outside, it is hard to see how a new referendem, perhaps with a 52/48 or, at best, a 54/46 Bremain vote, could heal what your country has inflicted on itself. Will you really be better off after such a referendum, with a reluctant EU taking you back because it must, with a raging Brexiteer crowd crying treason, with maybe a 20 % vote for UKIP and Michael Farage foaming at the mouth from his newly-won seat in Parliament? Maybe as Boris Johnsons coalition partner/ minority government tolerator? Is it maybe the smarter move to take the deal, leave on 22 May, have fresh elections, have a new PM (hopefiully a soft Brexiteer/ex-Remainer) have negotiate close ties with the EU and see how things turn out?

Extra question to Heid and Lianachan: Might this be exactly the momentum the independientistas need to get support above 50% for a Scoxit? And would that still be what you want?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:20 pm

Arneb wrote:Extra question to Heid and Lianachan: Might this be exactly the momentum the independientistas need to get support above 50% for a Scoxit? And would that still be what you want?


Polling has been consistently above 50% for a while now, and anecdotally pretty much everybody I know who voted no last time has told me they’ve changed their mind. Even extremely keen no voting ex-forces relatives. For many, it’s not just being dragged out of the EU against our will that’s caused this, it’s the clear contempt with which the British political system (and individuals) has been treating Scotland. Many of us have seen this for many, many years, but it’s been an eye-opener for others.

And yes, I’d vote for independence even if it meant I had to immediately go and live in a cave. All nations should be in control of their own destiny, in my view.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:53 pm

And would you think a no-deal (and presumbaly, catastrophic) Brexit would strengthen the chances of Scottish independence, and would it therefore be the outcome you prefer?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:55 pm

I’d not prefer it, I wouldn’t wish such a disaster on my southern neighbours.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:57 pm

I see. Come to think of it, it does seem a bit cynical to put that choice to you. Apologies. Are you optimistic there will actually be a second referendum on Scottish independence, say, within the next 5 years?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:33 pm

No apology required, it was a good question and I’m sure many of my countrymen would have given you a different answer. I know many have expressed disappointment that the SNP have been focussing on trying to mitigate Brexit for the entire UK rather than going for independence RIGHT FUCKING NOW. Get on with looking after Scotland via independence rather than trying to stop the English getting something they voted for anyway, sort of thing.

I’m confident there will be an independence referendum in the next 5 months, let alone 5 years.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby tubeswell » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:41 am

Gosh its been delayed for 10 pages of this thread already! Will it still be delayed in another 10 pages?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:00 am

I suspect so.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:25 am

I watched the Brexit soap again yesterday night. Heard some great speeches, and some very poor ones,including a lanky, wild-eyed Brexiteer pointing a finger, stutering with rage, at the Tory colleague who had tabled the successful Amendment giving Parliament control over the Brexit poceedings. Like, now that the honourable gentleman has designed himself as a sort of acting Prime Minister, how is Parliament to control him in turn. Very, very cool deflection of that hit by the Speaker.

One Labour MP made a great point saying that this had been a Brexit debate exclusively between the government, the DUP and the hard Brexitfaction within the Tory party for almost three years now - Very salient point.

Next up: MPs chosing between Brexit options on paper, ranking preferences instead of voting down one proposition after the other, all the while IM Mai and her ministers are smirking at them saying, it's over the cliff on 12 April anyway...
We Germans used to admire Britain for the good humour, the pragmatism and the ability to tdo the right thing under pressure. Sigh.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:08 pm

Soap opera time again. I had a certain caricature image of Jakob Rees-Mogg, talking. Now I find out he talks like his own caricature.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:30 pm

That couldn't possibly have come as a surprise, though. The man is a walking Dickensian villain.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:21 pm

Not too much, but it's always fascinating when reality exceeds what you'd consider a well-made, hard-mocking caricature.

Re. villainy, I found an even worse specimen.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:30 pm

You'd never believe it if he was a fictional character, though - his name is a little too on the nose.
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