Richard A wrote:Interesting, Arneb, that you see an independent Scotland joining the EU as a distant prospect.Some things which I would have thought would play in its favour - in no particular order.
1. Scotland's politicians - or at least the ones that would represent it - do not have a history of pissing off the EU. Indeed, if there were some in the EU who counted, among the reasons to fast track Scottish accession as sticking it to London, I would neither be surprised nor blame them.
2. The acquis, in Scotland's case, is pretty much still in place. And even in the nightmare scenario of the Brexit Freedoms Bill having become law and taken a hatchet to that, a government of an independent Scotland could quickly reverse it. There'd be some repair work to do, but it wouldn't be starting from scratch in the way that some of the other current applicants had to do.
3. The historic Spanish opposition to Scotland joining has quietly softened. I strongly suspect that, to mix linguistic expressions, Mutti had a wee word following the Spanish financial crisis. "Now of course EU solidarity is important and we will bail you out. But, friends, solidarity cuts both ways. We're making a considerable sacrifice to get you back on your feet. It's not an unreasonable sacrifice for you to make in return to drop your opposition to an independent Scotland joining the EU."
4. Linked to the above, there aren't any Member States that have a cultural problem with Scotland joining - there's no North Macedonia issue.
5. Given what Brexit has done to the pound-euro exchange rate, the currency would likely be less of an issue than it was last time. Though Scotland would be wise to avoid making Montenegro's mistake of unilaterally adopting the euro before joining. That did not go down well. Kosovo of course did the same, but since Cyprus has said, in Orthodox solidarity, that it will not agree to Kosovo joining the EU even if hell freezes over, Prishtina can do what it likes re. currency. Montenegro was another matter. So a Scottish pound pegged to the euro, the Bulgarian approach, seems more sensible.
But it would be good to hear others' views on this.
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